2023/24 El Niño Weather Outlook - Positive for BC's North Coast
A global depiction of a Strong El Niño with the split Jet Streams
British Columbia’s North Coast returns to an 'El Nino' Weather Pattern after two years of La Nina. The Long Range Forecast is one of the best we can have for BC's North Coast, with more snow and slightly warmer temps to take the chill off those early season mornings. With the Pacific Jet Stream splitting, we see the northern flow bringing the moist Pacific air straight onto the North Coast, where it collides with the cool air of our Northern Latitudes.
With the predicted El Niño, NOAA is forecasting a likelihood of slightly above normal precipitation for BC’s North Coast for the upcoming winter season. Their 3 Month Precipitation Outlook for December, January and February depicts the classic El Niño split of the Jet Streams, with the 'Tropical Jet' dipping South toward California and New Mexico and the Northern component, the 'Polar Jet' swinging North and through the North Coast of British Columbia.
How a strong El Niño can affect winter conditions
Terrace BC’s average temperature and precipitation at YXT airport. Skiing elevation temperatures are approx. -6°C cooler at treeline elevations of 1400m.
A typical El Niño event with the split Jet Streams, North and South. The precipitation generally follows the Jet Streams with drier, often milder, conditions prevailing between them. For BC’s North Coast and Inland Sections, temperatures in the mountains typically decrease by -0.5°C per 100m of elevation gain. Therefore at elevations between 800m and 2400m you can expect an average temperature of between -10°C and -6°C in a normal winter. A slight warming of 1°C to 2°C will only mean your fingertips will be a little less chili while skiing and riding.